Afghanistan and the future of Jihadism
The world was watching the fall of Kabul.
There has been much analysis on how American foreign policy failed to make any meaningful progress after spending 2 trillion dollars in Afghanistan. But other important questions are also coming to the forefront: what does it mean for the jihadists in other places, especially in Africa? Are there lessons to be learned in the fight against other Islamic militants? These two questions are particularly important in the case of certain countries where increasing jihadist activity is posing a threat to governments.
Africa
The coming to power of the Taliban after 20 years of fighting US and Afghan government forces can only encourage other jihadists. It will push them to adopt and adapt, giving them a profound psychological boost.
In many African countries where jihadists operate there is a similar situation to Afghanistan: a government that is corrupt, ineffective, or both; and sometimes a US military presence. After the Afghan situation, jihadists have learned that as long as the governments where they operate are corrupt and weak, it is inevitable that – one day – foreign forces will decide to leave. This is possibly the main thought now in the hearts and minds of al-Shabaab.
Al-Shabaab has been fighting the government of Somalia and its allies for the past decade. The government remains corrupt and its relationship with clan leaders is at times contentious and even dangerous, since any breakdown in that relationship could lead to a total collapse of the government. Just like in Afghanistan, militants in Somalia are financing their operations through illegal taxation and other illicit trade activities. In their view, it is inconceivable that foreign powers will keep financing an endless war and an inept government that is totally detached from its own people. The fall of Afghanistan can only strengthen that view.
Governments and regional troops from Western countries have also been fighting jihadists in Mozambique, DRC and the Sahel region, among others. In these places, the governments are either weak or lack legitimacy. Some of the Islamic militants have been pushed back by the joint forces from different countries – but there is an opportunity to expand their influence as the governments turned their focus to fighting the pandemic.
Many militant groups are now pushing for more territorial control. These groups may well be seeing the new situation in Afghanistan as ‘the light at the end of the tunnel’. The result is an even greater will to fight.
Proliferation of new jihadist groups
The fall of Kabul to the Taliban could also potentially lead to the creation of other jihadist groups. There could be extremist Islamic groups in many African countries who have not yet picked up guns because up until now they have thought: ‘Violence is too dangerous for our Islamic ideology as it is difficult to win against governments that are backed by foreign powers.’ This fear might have been dispelled by the fall of Kabul to the hands of the Taliban. Thus, there is potential for new jihadist groups to emerge in some African countries.
Asia
A very brief reminder of history and an immediate worry
Up until 1995, when the Taliban was fighting for power in Afghanistan, the country was a magnet for a plethora of Asian fighters (Central, South and Southeast Asian), who continued to be indoctrinated with radical ideology through the Taliban’s rule from 1995-2001. As they retake the country, one immediate security worry is that they have opened the prisons. Among the thousands set free is an unknown number of Central, Southeast and South Asians, who were part of the radicalized groups from the last caliphate.
Short- to mid-term worries: Training grounds
In February 2020, the Taliban agreed that Afghanistan would not be the starting point for terrorist attacks against the US and its allies, but the truth of the agreement is looking uncertain. Not only has the UN panel of experts declared that the Taliban did not cut its ties with al-Qaeda, but the reports on human rights abuses show that the Taliban are paying mere lip service in an attempt at keeping relations with Western states more or less in order, so that the flow of development aid (which the country is depending on) will continue.
And while the immediate appeal of fighting for a caliphate cannot be seen as the main driving motivation anymore (as this goal has now been achieved), it is still possible that Afghanistan or at least certain parts of the country will be used as a training ground for jihadists from the wider Asian region. Such training is often experienced as the most exciting and formative moment of young and motivated fighters.
Propaganda win and boost of morale
As in the case of African countries mentioned above, the swift takeover of Afghanistan and Kabul immediately became an enormous Islamist propaganda win and provided countless radical Islamic groups in Asia and beyond with a much needed morale boost and fresh confidence that they will win in the end.
For instance, while the militant group Jemaah Islamiyah has been dormant for the last decade, it has never left the scene. The Anti-Terror-Office of Indonesia estimated that 1200 Indonesian citizens travelled to fight in Iraq and Syria since 2014 and estimated that Jemaah Islamiyah had 6500 members prior to the Taliban taking control of Kabul.
The growing radicalism throughout South and Southeast Asia is only emboldened by the events in Kabul. It is an energizing thought for radical groups that by enduring and biding their time they will eventually be victorious.
Prayer
Pray that the global concerns about increased extremism would not be realized.
Pray that the Taliban government would lessen their stance on extreme issues and that other jihadist groups would do the same.
Pray also that the standing governments in places with jihadist activity would work to strengthen human rights and be seen as viable alternatives to an extremist government.
